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The NY Times Reads the Iran/Iraq Tea Leaves

Today, the New York Times treats us to Helen Cooper’s analysis of Iran’s activities inside Iraq, and decides that Bush is getting tough on Iran, and trying to convince a reluctant Iraqi Government that Iran is really really doing some bad things.

First, the claim that this is something new:

WASHINGTON — Iran is engaging in a proxy war with the United States in Iraq, adopting tactics similar to those it has used to back fighters in Lebanon, the United States ambassador to Iraq said Friday.

The remarks by the ambassador, Ryan C. Crocker, reflected the sharper criticism of Iran by President Bush and his top deputies over the past week, as administration officials have sought to trace many of their troubles in Iraq to Iran.

But the “sharper criticism” is not new at all. Indeed, it is precisely what Ambassador Crocker, General Petraeus and other spokesmen on the ground in Iraq have been saying for the past several months. And as for that little dig about “”many of (the Americans’) troubles in Iraq,” well, that’s the party line, even after a couple of weeks during which the Iranians and their proxies in Iraq have been so humiliated that they were forced to sue for peace, beg for permission to keep their weapons, and renew their phony calls for negotiations with the Great Satan.

Crocker pointed out that the Quds Force—which Cooper slightly misidentifies as “the paramilitary branch of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps” (it’s the IRGC’s foreign army, as distinct from the domestic forces that are used for political repression and as an alternate army to the unreliable regular forces) “was continuing to direct attacks by Shiite militias against American and Iraqi targets, although he offered no direct evidence.”

I guess the Times’ crack analysts can’t be bothered to report the direct evidence provided by Petraeus, when he told the world that the rockets recently launched on the Green Zone in Baghdad were of Iranian manufacture, that the groups who used them were trained by Iranians, and sometimes in Iran itself. And in his testimony Petraeus noted that this evidence came both from the weapons used and from captured Iranian military officials in our hands.

Then comes the deep thinking. “The Bush administration,” Cooper tells us, “is trying to exploit any crack it can find between the largely Shiite, pro-Iranian government of the Iraqi prime minister, Nuri Kamal al-Maliki, and Iran’s Shiite government.” And she quotes Secretary of Defense Gates: “I would say one of the salutary effects of what Prime Minister Maliki did in Basra is that I think the Iraqi government now has a clearer view of the malign impact of Iran’s activities inside Iraq.”

I wonder where Gates hears this nonsense, and why Cooper gives him a pass on it. To call the Iraqi Government “pro-Iranian” is like saying that the guys running the numbers racket for the Corleone family is “pro-Mafia.” They don’t have much of a choice, until and unless they come to believe that there’s a bigger guy in town who will give them better protection; meanwhile they’re gonna go on paying protection to the Don.

The issue for Iraqis, at all levels of the society, is not whether the mullahs are killing them. They know that, and they have known it all along. The Iranian creation, Iraq Hezbollah, goes back at least ten years. I recently spoke with an Iranian defector, now living in Europe, who worked in the Iranian Embassy in Baghdad, and he told me how Iran smuggled supplies, money and materiel to the local Hezbollah even before 9/11. At that time its activities were aimed against Saddam. When we came, the Coalition became its target, along with the usual innocents of the streets and markets of Iraq. The same defector recounted Iranian support for Sunni terrorists as well, from al Qaeda to less famous groups.

Iraqi ministers have been talking about Iranian terrorism for years. When I was at a closed meeting of leading Iraqis in Copenhagen two months ago, I heard many stories, complaints and warnings about Iran’s murderous activities. It is laughable to write, as Ms. Cooper does, “administration officials are trying to convince the Iraqi government that Iran may not be the ally it thought, and is behind attacks against Iraqi government forces.” If anything, it’s the other way round; the Iraqis have long known it, have never considered Iran an ally, but never saw signs that the United States was prepared to take on Iran. And doesn’t everyone agree that the fighting in Basra was initiated by the Iraqis, and the Americans were not enthusiastic about it?

The issue is not “sensitizing” the Iraqi leaders to Iranian crimes. The issue is—was, rather—getting to the point where the Iraqis feel confident enough to go after the Iranians and their proxies.

That is the big change: Iraq is defeating Iran. Iran’s proxies have been defeated in most of Iraq. The remaining areas—primarily the zones in and around Mosul, and in and around Basra—are under siege from Iraqi and Coalition forces, including, at long last, the Brits (who were supposed to have pacified Basra long since). And the Iranians are losing, bigtime. A couple of weeks ago I wrote here that the Iranians were increasingly desperate, and that it looked like Khamenei was going to try a desperate throw of the dice. He did. And lost, losing to mostly Iraqi forces.

It’s not amazing that the Times should misanalyze this story. Its editors and some of its journalists want us to lose in Iraq, and the very idea that a free Iraqi army is defeating proxy forces from tyrannical Iran, is too tough for them to digest.

I think it’s delicious.

UPDATE: Compare with the far better discussion by the WaPo’s Karen DeYoung here.

UPDATE 2: And Sunday’s WaPo follows through with quite a good editorial here.


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Comments (5)

a Duoist :

If the Bush administration's recently announced bank squeeze could get Switzerland's Laufenberg Electric Company to cancel its new billion dollar per year gas deal with Iran, our warnings about Iran would carry far more weight everywhere, including in Baghdad, Tehran, and even in Geneva. Is the squeeze actually on, or is it just more 'paper tiger' posturing by the Bush administration? That gas is ultimately headed for Italian customers; what do Italy's candidates for prime minister have to say about buying gas from a non-Swiss, non-Iranian source?

ML:

Good questions. You can be sure that this issue never came up in the italian elections.

Apr 13, 2008 05:07 AM

davod :

It was amusing to see the Senators upset that Maliki was not marching to the US orders on how to approach operations in the South.

Not that this will change the "Maliki is a US puppet" meme.

Apr 13, 2008 10:48 AM

Drellberg :

Poor Bush. Everyone has their own take on Iran, and their own prescription. McCain has faulted him for not having enough troops. The Dems want fewer. Bolton wants something more 'muscular.' A lot of folks just want Bush to do do better, pointing to a string of 'perfect hindsight' failures. Ledeen wants a push to overthrow the mullahs. In this age when everyone has his own blog, there is simply no way to make anyone happy. I love Bush. I think he has been steadfast and patient. I know Ledeen loathes the Bush Administration. Such a shame. Wouldn't it be wonderful if ultimately there was a meeting of the minds?

I enjoy tracking all of the pundits. I often wonder what they think of each other. And I have my favorites, with Ledeen at the top and having no equal. Amir Taheri is second. But there are a lot of good writers, including guys like M. Yon.

Ledeen must like Amir Taheri, I think, because their work hits similar themes. Taheri's article in this morning's NY Post about Iran's recent elections must have gone over well. And I wonder if Ledeen holds guys like Patrick Buchanan in utter contempt. Buchanan's most recent piece attacks the Bush administration for calling out Iran without ever even hinting at whether the allegations have any substance.

I think amateurs like me, stuck in the hinterlands, can do a pretty decent job at sorting out the cacaphony. I think the isolation can even be an advantage. But not being an 'insider,' I have no sense of what all of these pundits think of each other. It's fun when at times guys like Ledeen simply can not abide the nonsense any longer, and they go on a rant.

ML:

Yes, you do a fine job. Thanks.

Apr 13, 2008 12:07 PM

winston :

It's not too late to get back at the Iranian regime. President Bush should do it and he CAN do it.

Apr 13, 2008 02:47 PM

Nick Guariglia :

Good stuff. We saw Joe Lieberman ask Gen. Petraeus and Amb. Crocker about these Iranian bases inside Iran, where they train insurgents. I'm not sure how accurate this is, but Bill Roggio said the Quds Command in Iraq is called the Ramazan Corps (which, as you've pointed out, controls Qazali and Shebaini terrorist cells and the various Special Groups within JAM, amongst others.

Last year, the mullahs apparently trifurcated the Ramazan Corps' authority into the Nasr Command (operating out of the Iranian town of Marivan, concentrating on Iraq's Diyala province), the Zafar Command (operating out of the Iranian town of Mehran, concentrating on Baghdad and surrounding cities), and the Fajr Command (operating out of Iranian military bases in Khorramshahr and Shalamcheh to direct attacks in Basra)...

If we're not gonna go after the regime itself politically, at least go after these camps somehow.

Apr 13, 2008 05:02 PM

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